Leeds United travel to the Brentford Community Stadium to take on Brentford in the final matchday of the Premier League. This match is the most important of the season for the Whites as their very survival in the top flight of English football depends on this encounter. In the reverse fixture back in December 2021, these two teams played out a 2-2 draw, with Patrick Bamford equalizing in the stoppage time for Leeds United. Coming into this game, Brentford won 3-2 away at Goodison Park against Everton, and Leeds drew 1-1 with Brighton.
Brentford come into this game having earned a 3-2 away win at Everton on Sunday. Goals from Yoane Wissa, Rico Henry, and an own goal from Seamus Coleman were enough for the Bees to emerge victorious. This win moves Brentford to 11th on the points table, with a record of 13 wins, seven draws and 17 losses and a goal difference of -7. Despite the win, the Bees have actually underperformed going forward, according to xG. The metric estimated them to score 53 goals, but in reality, they have netted 47 goals.
Seen above is the shot map of Brentford in the Premier League this season. The Bees’ top scorer is Ivan Toney, with 12 goals to his name. Wissa is behind him, with seven to his name. Bryan Mbeumo has underperformed badly for Brentford this season, scoring only four times against an xG of 10. Overall, Brentford have netted 45 goals from 427 shots, giving them a conversion rate of 9.49 shots per goal scored.
Mathias Jensen is Brentford’s most successful threat creator in this Premier League season, but most of his threat comes from set-pieces, especially his corners. From open play, it is the Spaniard, Sergi Canos, who has produced the majority of the threat. Bryan Mbuemo is the Bees’ leading assist maker in the Premier League, with seven to his name. Most of Brentford’s threat has come from the right wing.
Heading into this match, Leeds drew their previous game 1-1 against Brighton. Their three-match losing streak ended with this draw, thanks to a stoppage-time equalizer from Pascal Struijk. The Whites are still in the survival race and have not been relegated yet. Leeds’ record stands at eight wins, 11 draws and 18 losses, with a goal difference of -38. The team from West Yorkshire has won the most defensive duels per game of any team this season, with 49 to their name. In spite of this, they have the second-worst defence in the league, with 78 goals conceded (only Norwich have conceded more).
Leeds United have not only underperformed at the back this season as per xGA, but they have also done the same going forward. The Whites have scored 0.99 goals per game as against an xG per game of 1.32. Leeds also rank in the bottom half for assists per game and key passes per game.
If Leeds United are to stay up and not be relegated to the Championship, they must win this game and hope Burnley lose both of their last two games.